ECB e Bankitalia info

We evaluate how the euro area economy would have performed since mid-2021 under alternative monetary policy strategies. We use the ECB’s workhorse estimated DSGE model and contrast actual policy conduct against alternative strategies which differ in their ”lower-for-longer” commitment as well as policymaker preferences regarding inflation and output volatility. Assuming that the monetary authority had full knowledge of prevailing conditions from mid-2021 onwards, the alternative policy strategies would call for anticipated timing of the start of the hiking cycle: earlier tightening would prevent inflation from peaking at 10%, but the forceful tightening since 2022:Q3 prevented higher inflation from becoming entrenched. However, once evaluating monetary policy on real-time quarterly vintages of incoming data and projections, the alternative interest rate paths would be broadly consistent with the observed policy conduct. The proximity of some benchmark optimal policy counterfactuals with the baseline, brings further indication that the actual policy conduct succeeded in implementing an efficient management of the output-inflation trade-off.

We establish basic facts about the external finance premium. Tens of millions of individual loan contracts extended to euro area firms allow studying the determinants of the external finance premium at the country, bank, firm, and contract levels of disaggregation. At the country level, the variance in the premium is closely linked to sovereign spreads, which are important in understanding financial amplification mechanisms. However, country-level differences only explain half of the total variance. The rest is predominantly attributed to variances at the bank and firm levels, which are influenced by the respective balance sheet characteristics. Studying the response of the external finance premium to monetary policy, we find that balance sheet vulnerabilities of banks and firms strengthen the transmission of policy measures to financing conditions. Moreover, our findings reveal an asymmetrical effect contingent upon the sign and type of the policies. Specifically, policy rate hikes and quantitative easing measures exert a more pronounced impact on lending spreads, further magnified through their repercussions on the external finance premium.

Every working day via an interactive webpage, the ECB releases a set of nominal yield curves based on AAA-rated euro-denominated bonds issued by euro area central governments, covering the maturity spectrum from three months up to 30 years. In addition, euro area yield curves covering all euro area central government bonds and the spreads between both curves are released. The spot, instantaneous forward and par yield curves, both past and present, can be easily displayed using the webpage's charting facility.

The latest data (from 06 January 2017) for the euro area yield curves are available! Download the latest spot, instantaneous forward and par yield curves based on the AAA-rated euro-denominated bonds issued by euro area central governments as well as the curves covering all euro area central government bonds. The maturity spectrum covers three months up to 30 years.

The historical euro area government bond yield curve contains the spot rate, instantaneous forward and par yield curves for both AAA-rated euro-denominated bonds issued by euro area central governments and all euro area central government bonds. The maturity spectrum covers three months up to 30 years. Data are available from 29 December 2006 to 06 January 2017.

Attivazione della riserva di capitale a fronte del rischio sistemico

Questioni di economia e finanza N. 848 - "Ampliare lo spazio macroprudenziale in Italia attraverso l'attivazione di una riserva di capitale a fronte del rischio sistemico", di Gennaro Catapano, Leonardo del Vecchio, Maddalena Galardo, Giulio Guerra e Ilaria Petrarca.

"Il lavoro studia come ampliare in Italia i buffer di capitale rilasciabili in caso di shock (cosiddetto spazio macroprudenziale), così da sostenere l'offerta di credito all'economia e limitare possibili effetti prociclici. [...]"